The theory of wave propagation and fluctuations in random media has been broadly studied; however the works studying the influence of a changing underwater acoustic environment on the spatial decay and fluctuations of the peak pressure in broadband and impulsive signals are limited. Using a method based on the formulation developed by Dyer and Makris to estimate intensity fluctuations of sound signals in the ocean in conditions of saturated multipath propagation, this paper presents an approach to model peak pressure fluctuations of transient signals propagating underwater. In contrast to the formulation of Dyer and Makris, the approach presented in this work applies extreme value theory using the properties of the peak pressure as a maximum value taken from a Rayleigh distributed amplitude. The location and scale parameters obtained from the best fit to a Gumbel distribution are used to estimate the probability of the peak pressure level staying below a certain threshold. The theory was applied to measurements of signals from an Airgun arrays and offshore impact pile driving, resulting in good agreement in both cases.

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